“The Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part from climate change,” said UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon in a Washington Post opinion column.
UN statistics showed that rainfall declined some 40 percent over the past two decades, he said, as a rise in Indian Ocean temperatures disrupted monsoons.
“This suggests that the drying of sub-Saharan Africa derives, to some degree, from man-made global warming,” the South Korean diplomat wrote.
“It is no accident that the violence in Darfur erupted during the drought,” Ban said in the Washington daily.
“Ban’s comments follow the traditional UN script that whatever happens in the world, it is America’s fault. Of course global warming caused the conflict in Darfur. If political opportunism and regional politics were the cause, which they are, then Ban would not be able to implicitly blame America. America is to blame because America is the world’s largest emitter of greehouse gasses.
As Marlo Lewis says, “This morality tale is not only morally challenged, it is unscientific. A team of four researchers led by Martin Hoerling of NASA compared actual precipitation data with the rainfall simulations of 18 climate models used by the IPCC in its Fourth Assessment Report. The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change summarizes the Hoerling team’s findings:
In the words of the four researchers, “the ensemble of greenhouse-gas-forced experiments, conducted as part of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, fails to simulate the pattern or amplitude of the twentieth-century African drying, indicating that the drought conditions were likely of natural origin.” In fact, they say that for both of the regions studied,“the observed trend amplitudeexceeded that of the greenhouse gas signal by an order of magnitude,” and they state once again that they “therefore concluded that greenhouse gas forcing played little or no role in the 1950-99 observed African drying trends.” What is more, they say there is “considerable spread” among the 18 model projections, making their mean trend so small that they suggest that “natural variability will continue to be the primary driver of[Africa’s] low-frequency rainfall variations during the next century.”
In short, the Center concludes, “there is absolutely no evidence that the 20th-century drying of much of Africa was in any way related to CO2-induced global warming, nor is there any model-based reason for supposing it will be so related over the next century.”